Schedule's Out: Rams Host Bills in Kickoff Game – Football Outsiders

Schedule's Out: Rams Host Bills in Kickoff Game – Football Outsiders

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Assistant Editor
Since 2007
Seattle, WA
NFL Offseason – The NFL has released its 2022 schedule. The season kicks off with the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams hosting the AFC favorite Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, September 8, in a rematch of a wild game from 2020. The last time these two teams played, the Bills went up 28-3, fell behind 32-28, and rallied to win 35-32, all in regulation.
Other notable Week 1 games include the L.A. Chargers hosting the Las Vegas Raiders in a rematch of last year’s win-and-in game from Week 18; the Cincinnati Bengals opening defense of their AFC championship at home against the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers; a shootout in the desert as Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City visit Kyler Murray and Arizona; the Dallas Cowboys at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night; and finally, Russell Wilson leading the Denver Broncos into Seattle to defeat face the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. 
Highlights from later in the season:
UPDATE: We had to include the Chargers’ schedule announcement. It’s magnificent.
Should we REALLY make our schedule release video an anime?

yes yes yesyes
yesyes yes yes yes
yes yes yes yes yes
yes yesyes yes yes
yes yesye yes yes
yes yes yesyes pic.twitter.com/A0TvmYJUOQ
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) May 13, 2022
15 comments, Last at 13 May 2022, 7:19pm
by IlluminatusUIUC // May 12, 2022 – 9:14pm
That Chargers release video is hysterical, and I’m legitimately disappointed Buffalo isn’t on their schedule. I would have loved to see what they came up with.
by DisplacedPackerFan // May 12, 2022 – 9:21pm
In reply to by IlluminatusUIUC
I enjoyed it a ton and yeah would have liked to have seen the Bills too because there’s a lot of fun things you could have done with that! I’m actually more curious what they would done for the Bills than for my Packers.
by Romodini // May 12, 2022 – 10:28pm
In reply to by IlluminatusUIUC
I normally can’t stand anime but this instantly won me over. 
by DisplacedPackerFan // May 12, 2022 – 9:28pm
Not a huge fan of weeks 7, 8, and 9 all being on the road but at least it’s only one really tough opponent since it’s Commanders, Bills, Lions. Though to be fair the Lions can at times cause the Packers grief in that dome.
Still NFC East and AFC East makes the whole schedule feel a lot nicer than NFC West and AFC North was last season regardless of order.
by DisplacedPackerFan // May 13, 2022 – 7:19pm
In reply to by DisplacedPackerFan
I looked at it more and again this schedule is just easier than last year (which rated at a -0.1% average DVOA). I think folks might have to prepare for another round of the Packers record not reflecting in DVOA, though schedule strength is likely to explain a lot of it because I don’t expect this schedule to suddenly look a lot stronger so it might be a lot easier to explain (I’m expecting something that ends up being like a -3.5% DVOA if not worse). I’m still curious if there is something DVOA doesn’t capture with run heavier teams that are very successful on a drive by drive metric like GB but not as much on the play by play (because passing >>> running per play). This is the modern super passing friendly NFL, but I still wonder since it’s not just GB. While this season should provide more data controlling for schedule will be even more important if I want to keep picking at it.
Anyway to break it down
6-0 against the division is not crazy, 4-2 like last year feels very safe especially since week 18 vs DET could be another game they don’t care about again.
5-0 against the Jets, Giants, Commanders, Dolphins, and Eagles doesn’t seem crazy, 4-1 feels very safe.
3-3 against Tampa Bay, New England, Buffalo, Dallas, Tennessee, and LA Rams doesn’t seem crazy. 2-4 against that feels safe.
So yeah 10-7 feels like the floor even without Adams and 14-3 as the ceiling. The Eagles and Patriots (I never look past a BB team) could be significantly better than last season, but the Titans could also be significantly weaker.
If they beat Tampa Bay I’ll be amazed. Rodgers has a history of playing like crap (post 4) against Tampa and you can add the NO game last year and just make it early season games in Florida if you like. I also don’t like their chances in Buffalo. But beating Dallas and the Rams at home would not be surprising at all. So there are really only 2 games I’m really down another 2 toss-ups, 3 or 4 that feel like they should be 60/40 at worst and then 9 or 10 that feel like 70% or better win chances. Heck Jordan Love should be able to get 7 wins against that schedule based on how he played against KC and DET last year (and he didn’t play great, he also wasn’t the worst thing I’ve seen at QB).
The London game against the Giants followed up by the Jets at home feels about as nice as you can get for a team playing in London that declined getting the bye after that game.
Now the DET rebuild could move faster than expected and maybe something will actually happen in Chicago. MIN has been their toughest division opponent basically since Favre took over as starter and I never look past them. But this division is like the Packers are the Brady Pats against the rest of the AFC East. It’s just a lot of free wins and the Packers may have gone backwards a bit on offense but they also may have gone forward a bit on defense. Even if the rest of the division has taken 2 steps forward and the Packers took 1 step back they are still at worst even (50/50 games) and most likely still a step or 2 ahead.
by ImNewAroundThe… // May 12, 2022 – 10:39pm
if the champs capped off the week instead of starting it. Do we reeeeealllly need to see Drew Lock…anytime…but especially primetime?
And quirky anime won’t win me over this time because they posted that cringey poptart thread again.
by HitchikersPie // May 13, 2022 – 9:01am
Family
Trust
Respect
Fuck
The
Raiders
 
Chargers social media as ever knocking it out of the park errr… stadium
by Aaron Brooks G… // May 13, 2022 – 9:24am
In reply to by HitchikersPie
Hopefully they clean up the parking lot; they are only tenants.
by IlluminatusUIUC // May 13, 2022 – 11:52am
In reply to by HitchikersPie
They took big swings at everybody: The Raiders in a dumpster with Antonio Brown’s old helmet and a Chucky Doll, the Falcons having a 28% discount on 3 waffles, a gravestone for “Mina Kimes’ Hope’s and Dreams” (she responded to that one lol), Pat McAfee running the Colts carousel, the Broncos stadium fire, Andy Reid with a cheeseburger in his mech cockpit, there are so so many
by HitchikersPie // May 13, 2022 – 9:01am
Family
Trust
Respect
Fuck
The
Raiders
 
Chargers social media as ever knocking it out of the park errr… stadium
by Aaron Brooks G… // May 13, 2022 – 9:25am
Any truth to the rumor that the Bengals released their schedule on a broken blackboard scrawn in hand using a piece of old chalk?
How far in advance do teams know? Given the various presentations, there must have been some amount of lead time.
by Scott P. // May 13, 2022 – 10:14am
Every team knows the opponents they will play immediately after the end of the prior regular season — that is set well in advance. The only question is the order.
by crw78 // May 13, 2022 – 12:20pm
In reply to by Scott P.
Each team knows in advance they will play 6 intra-division games, they will play 4 games against another division in their conference (and that rotates so they always know each year which division it will, they will play), 4 games against another division in the other conference (again, it rotates so known in advance), and 2 intra-conference games against the other divisions in the conference based on where they finished the year before (so 1s play 1s, 2s play 2s, etc.).
But the new 17th game, isn’t that just random or is their some logic to that as well? I know it will always be a 5th inter-conference game, but I’m not sure if the matchups are pre-determined by anything or not.
by KnotMe // May 13, 2022 – 12:52pm
It’s a bit complicated, but seems to be an interconference game.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-17-game-schedule-heres-how-the-complicated-scheduling-formula-will-work-with-the-extra-game/
So they get 1 game vs the division they faced 2 years ago based on last years standings.  So…the packers get the Titans bc the NFC North played the AFC South in 2020 and they both won their divisions last year. I think that’s how it works. 
 
by crw78 // May 13, 2022 – 2:29pm
In reply to by KnotMe
Thank you!
NFL Week 21 • May 12, 2022
April 25th, 9:00 am ET
March 22, 11:16am ET
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